California's US House of Representatives Elections in 2024: A Statistical Anomaly or Election Integrity?

SKU: California's US House of Representatives Elections in 2024

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The 2024 U.S. House of Representative elections in California have turned into a battleground for political supremacy and the very principles of electoral integrity. In a state recognized for its progressive voting policies, six districts — CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, and CA-47 — are currently at the forefront of how votes are counted and the integrity of the electoral process. Republican candidates in these districts initially celebrated leads on election night, but their fortunes changed in the following weeks as more and more ballots were tallied. This phenomenon, where four out of the six of these districts flipped from red to blue -- CA-13, CA-27, CA-45, and CA-47 -- has sparked widespread disdain, questioning the mechanics of vote counting, the influence of mail-in voting, and the overarching lack of trust in the election system.

The changes observed in these races are usually attributed to the phenomenon known as the "blue shift." This term describes the tendency for mail-in ballots, historically favoring Democrats, to be counted after Election Day. However, this explanation contradicts early voting trends, where Republican voters were more active in mailing ballots in the 2024 general elections. This phenomenon was particularly evident in CA-45, where Michelle Steel, a two-term Republican incumbent, saw her lead steadily erode as more and more votes were tallied, eventually conceding to Democrat Derek Tran.

US House of Representatives CA-45 illustrating percentage of votes over time from election day for Republican Michelle Steel (Red) and Democrat Derek Tran (Blue).

Similarly, in CA-13, Republican John Duarte's 2.8 % lead the day after the election steadily vanished, placing him behind Democrat Adam Gray by 133 votes, more than 3 weeks later.

Public skepticism has been vocal, with observers questioning the legitimacy of these shifts. High-profile figures like Elon Musk and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene have amplified these concerns. Musk has hinted at broader issues with election integrity, while Greene has directly accused the process of fraud in CA-45. Their remarks underscore a growing mistrust in the electoral system, focusing on transparency and managing the late counting of ballots. This skepticism is echoed by findings from the 2023 Public Affairs Pulse Survey, which revealed that only 37% of Americans believed the 2024 elections would be "honest and open" to rightful voters.

https://pac.org/impact/few-americans-believe-2024-elections-will-be-honest-and-open

The situation became more complicated due to legislative actions in Huntington Beach, where a voter ID requirement for municipal elections was enacted but later overruled by state law. This clash between local initiatives and state regulations has led to further concerns of inappropriate ballot handling by the state aimed at flipping Republican seats to Democrats.

Thus, the 2024 election cycle has not only shed light on how California counts votes but also intensified national concerns about election integrity up and down the ballot. The skepticism highlights a public call for greater transparency and trust in electoral processes. California and other states controlled by Democratic leadership must be held accountable by the federal government to ensure an honest method of counting only eligible votes of American citizens with a verifiable chain of custody for ballots. The following two years are crucial for Congress to pass legislation that ensures strict adherence to nationwide voter integrity measures.

Contact:

Sam Rabinowitz, MD

OurFreeElections@gmail.com