Home Depot’s U.S. same-store sales grew only 1.3% year-over-year, which is negative after adjusting for inflation. Lowe’s is also reporting weak growth and a muted outlook for home improvement.
Meanwhile, pending home sales remain roughly 33% below the pre-pandemic norm, while home flipping profits fell to their lowest level since 2008. When you put all of these signals together, the picture becomes clear: America is in a major housing recession.
And that could eventually become a problem for the broader economy. Housing accounts for roughly 15% of U.S. GDP.
If home sales remain depressed, builders continue pulling back, lumber demand keeps falling, and consumers also begin reducing their spending, economic weakness could accelerate heading into 2027.
I’m also on the ground in St. Petersburg, Florida, showing what this downturn looks like at the street level. Some sellers are now listing homes for $50,000 or more below what they paid just a few years ago.
Other sellers are still asking prices far above what their local market supports, creating opportunities for buyers who know where and how to negotiate.
(SECOND QUARTER FISCAL 2026)
